The Ron-Yasu relationship, for those old enough to have found that more interesting than the adventures of the Smurfs or U-2's latest release, was celebrated as a high point of Japan-U.S. friendship. Nakasone was Japan's version of Reagan, an imposing, older man with solid conservative principles. This partnership was actually part of a larger network of world leaders, including, of course, the Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher, and to a lesser extent, Mitterand, Kohl, and Canada's Mulroney. Jonathan Dresner writing in the History News Network puts it like this:
Reagan was at the center of a group of the most powerful world leaders all of whom were pushing a certain kind of economic and political reform and who, collectively, set the stage for the intensely and extensively globalized capitalist economics that dominates the world today. The G-7 nations, dynamic industrialized democracies, were at the center of the action, but there were other important members as well, some of them surprising. And Ronald Reagan's personal relationships with these leaders often formed an important cornerstone of this coalition.
About Nakasone in particular, he has this to say:
Yasuhiro Nakasone of Japan was an eager member of the group, and as Japan's only English-fluent, over-six-foot prime minister he could engage with the group in an unprecedentedly close fashion. Being on a first name basis with Reagan -- in Japan it was known as "Ron-Yasu Diplomacy" -- was one sign of that engagement. Nakasone's domestic and foreign policy agenda, known as "Internationalization" [kokusaika], was an attempt to leverage Japan's economic strength into both national pride and renewed activism on the international stage. This would, he hoped, reduce trade barriers and allow Japan to be a full member of the international community: Japan's push for a UN Security Council seat really began in earnest under Nakasone.
So, the question is, are we seeing another Ron-Yasu with the good vibes between George and Jun, Junichiro Koizumi, that is?
Well, as in most affairs of the heart, there is the issue of mutual benefits. What does Jun get out of backing George, as he has done recently? A few day ago, Koizumi, without reservations, expressed his preference for Bush over Kerry. He's since backed away from that after catching a little heat from his rivals. After all, what if Kerry does win?
But why couldn't Jun keep his cards closer to his chest in the first place? Maybe it was just the strength of his feelings for George, similar to the devotion Ron and Yasu had for each other. According to Adrienne McPhail (an American journalist based in Yokosuka--hmmm, site of a big American amy base) via Japan Today, there's some genuine warmth in Koizumi's feelings towards old W.
There is also a personal relationship between these two men that dates back to 2001 when they both took office. Koizumi said after his very first meeting with Bush that it was a wonderful meeting and that he believed they were able to establish a relationship of trust. He called the meeting "heart-to-heart" and expressed surprise that they could establish such a strong relationship so quickly.
While Howard respects Bush's strength, Koizumi geninely seems to like him. This may come as a great shock to a lot of people, who do not believe such a thing is possible. Yet, this friendship does seem to exist and it shows no signs of changing. In the final analysis, Koizumi believes that the best way to fight terrorism is to export democracy with Japanese dollars. He believes that Japan should have a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council and that Bush is going to help him reach that goal.
And ah, yes, the Security Council seat. That's what Yasu was going after way back in the eighties. Bush has expressed his support for Japan on this point:
At the G-8 Summit this past summer, Bush and Koizumi met prior to the summit commencing. Bush thanked Koizumi for Japan's pledge to help reconstruct Iraq and he vowed continued U.S. support for Japan's efforts to win a seat on the U.N. Security Council. The policy to keep pressure on North Korea to disarm, using the six-party approach is another concept they have in common.
North Korea. Apparently Koizumi doesn't like Kerry's favoring of a bilateral approach regarding North Korea. North Korea likes it just fine, though.
There are some who find the George-Jun (ringier than Ron-Yasu, I think) friendship a little suspect. Glen Fukushima writing for the "Without Fear or Favor" Japan Times (Hello?) stresses the oppressive side of the 40 year plus Liberal Democrat Party hold on Japanese politics in its favoring of the GOP.
Many in the Japanese establishment prefer the order, stability, and exclusiveness represented by the GOP to the openness, inclusiveness, and diversity valued by Democrats. In addition, when Republicans are in the White House, Democrats tend to return to think tanks, law firms, and universities, whereas when Democrats occupy the White House, Republicans usually return to business and continue in the private sector to cultivate ties with their Japanese counterparts. Over time, this network of human relationships has given Japanese leaders a greater sense of familiarity and assurance with Republicans (e.g., Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage) than with most Democrats.
Fukushima also alludes to 'some elements of the mass meda' in trying to scare Japanese away form Kerry.
As in 2000, the Japanese leadership and some elements of the mass media are already predicting dire consequences for Japan should Democrats win in November. These include tumbling stock prices, trade protectionism and a cozying up or a clash between the U.S. and China -- either of which would put Japan in a difficult position, with the former resulting in Japan feeling excluded and the latter resulting in Japan being forced to side with one of its two top economic partners.
So the reasons for Koizumi's support of Bush are manifold, 'certain elements' aside. But in general, I think we are seeing something similar to the Ron-Yasu phenomenon, but this time with George, Jun, Tony, and John Howard of Australia. Fukushima mentions that the warm feelings towards this coalition are not shared by the Japanese people, and from my personal experience, this is true. Many Brits hate Tony, too. Yet, when push comes to shove, as it did in Australia, which went for Howard in a big way, and in America, which I believe will reelect George Bush, for all his flaws, Japan will continue back Koizumi. Japan's future in a world dominated by communist China and rogue-state North Korea still looks brighter when backed by a strong ally with strong convictions.
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