Where Have All The Children Gone?

The projections vary, but most experts believe that Japan's population, now 127.6m and barely growing, will peak some time between next year and 2007, and then begin a long, steady slide that will last several decades at least. Japan's Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) forecasts that the population will fall to somewhere between 92m and 108m by mid-century, with a medium-case prediction of about 100m people in 2050. The United Nations foresees a slightly smaller drop over the period, but still to around 105m people.

Even though Japanese lifespans continue to lengthen, the country simply will not have enough young people to maintain its population. The fertility rate (the number of children per woman during her lifetime) fell below 1.3 last year, down from 3.65 in 1950. Although Japan's bureaucrats have launched a drive to promote childbirth—including tax breaks and rules helping parents take more leave—the fertility rate is expected to stay low for at least a few decades. By 2050 the proportion of children under 15 will fall to less than 11% of the population (see chart), from 16% in 1995. The average Japanese will then be over 53 years old, 12 years older than now.

This will affect everything from work and family life to foreign policy and national security. Japan will probably have to let more workers immigrate, though public unease will no doubt lead it to delay and minimise this shift as much as possible. A smaller population may also mean slower economic growth; that will take its toll on spending categories, like defence, whose clout depends more on total economic weight than on income per person.    The Economist

Up here in the sticks I still see a lot of kids--the supermarkets are filled with Moms with one, two, kids in tow.  However, in tiny villages, like Ogunidani around the corner, there are no kids at all.  In what should be a paradise for a child--forest, streams, hills, fields, mountains just down the trail, the only scampering you see is that of the monkeys pilfering whatever unprotected leavings they can find.

Like many Blue Statish American women (and men), many Japanese women are becoming hostile to the very idea of having children.  It might impinge on their personal freedom.  They will be looked upon by their friends as dowdy, old fashioned, or unglamorous. It will be messy, inconvenient, or annoying.  They might not be able to self actualize.  Sadly, many of them do begin to self-actualize...after or on the verge of leaving their child-bearing years. 

Like my Mom always used to tell me, you get old too soon and smart too late.  And as Horace said, "Naturam expelles furca, tamen usque recurret, et mala perrumpet furtim fastidia victrix."  You can drive out nature with a pitchfork, but she will soon burst over your foolish contempt in triumph."

The upshot for Japan is the necessity to make an decision--dwindle in economic and political importance or risk cultural discord by letting in immigrants.  Japan would do well to watch western Europe's experiments in this.  Perhaps Chinese immigrants--people who believed they had a vested interest in their host culture, rather than as putative 'parasites' who have to grab what they can get before they are tossed out-- would be the salvation of the country, but Japan as Japan would be irrevocably changed, and there are still too many xenophobes willing and able to throw their weight around for this to become a reality.

Comments

[PacRim Jim]

Linear thinking. Biotech and nanotech will retard (and possibly reverse?) aging by mid century (I won't say which). Too, robots will do much of the work, so Japanese men will be free to piss on walls 24x7. Ishi no ue ni mo...